The Yard — MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet

THE YARD HOME RUN INTELLIGENCE

THE EXCLUSIVE HOME RUN CHEAT SHEET · POWERED BY ODDSSHOPPER

— — games LIVE · —

The Board

Tonight's top 15 · tap any row for the full model breakdown

The Yard is a model output, not betting advice. Probabilities are estimates; lines move. Bet responsibly. 21+.

Yard Score: 100 = league-average HR probability for a starting hitter. Fair odds are the no-vig price implied by the model.

Where the model stands. Probabilities are calibrated against our own graded results — an early version over-predicted home runs by 42%, and that correction is applied here. What we have not shown is that the model ranks hitters within a night better than chance, or that it beats the market's own prices. Tier labels describe where a hitter ranks on tonight's board; they are not claims of profit.